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WASHINGTON (AP) — Just a quarter of business economists and analysts expect the United States to fall into recession this year. But respondents to a National Association of Business Economics survey released Monday still expect year-over-year inflation to exceed 2.5% -- above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target – through 2024. But the economy unexpectedly kept growing and employers kept hiring and resisting layoffs despite higher borrowing costs. The Fed has stopped raising rates and has signaled that it expects to reduce rates three times this year. Another 85% are worried about political instability in the United States before or after the Nov. 5 presidential election.

Persons: –, ’ ’, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac Organizations: WASHINGTON, National Association of Business Economics, Fed Locations: United States, China, U.S, Taiwan

☆ The US economy ended 2023 with a bang
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter. After real GDP surged 4.9% in the third quarter, the latest point suggests still strong growth. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.3% per the news release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Persons: —, Steve Rattner, Willett, Rattner Organizations: Service, National Association for Business Economics, Willett Advisors, Bloomberg, Labor Statistics

☆ A year ago most economists expected a recession. Now 91% say otherwise.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe vast majority of economists see a recession as unlikely in the next year, according to the latest survey from the National Association of Business Economics. New results out Monday showed 91% now assign a probability of 50% or less for a slowdown in the next 12 months. AdvertisementOnly 9% of respondents reported a recession being more likely than not, down from 18% in the previous survey. Since 1968, the recession indicator has gone eight for eight in preceding a recession.

Persons: —, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Campbell Harvey Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Business, The University of, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department

☆ NABE survey: Optimism on the rise
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNABE survey: Optimism on the riseCNBC's Steve Liesmen joins 'The Exchange' to report on the latest survey by the National Association of Business Economics.

Persons: Steve Liesmen Organizations: National Association of Business Economics

☆ When you’re Gen Z but live in a 900-year-old European castle
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( Maureen O'Hare | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Editor’s Note: Sign up for Unlocking the World, CNN Travel’s weekly newsletter. In their princess eraFor most young people, living back home with your parents is about economic necessity. But for 22-year-old Ludovica Sannazzaro Natta and 23-year-old Megan Clawson, it’s about living their absolute best life. Sannazzaro Natta is descended from Italian nobility and moved into a 900-year-old fairytale Italian castle when she was four years old. But if you’re looking for a fun nabe to base yourself while you live like a local, it’s an excellent guide.

Persons: Megan Clawson, Sannazzaro, Henry VIII, Anne Boleyn’s, Lucia, Dolly Parton, ”, Parton Organizations: CNN, United Nations World Tourism Organization, Resorts, Western Locations: London, it’s, American, Mexico, China, Ethiopia, Croatia, St, Benin, Uzbekistan, Pennsylvania, Down, Tennessee, ”, Russian, South America, Japan

In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."

Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley

☆ Treasury-bond rout eases as more Fed officials hint further rate hikes may not be necessary
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bond yields plunged lower Tuesday following comments from Fed officials about a rate hike reprieve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he sees no need for further rate hikes to cool down the economy. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said rising term premiums on bonds may do the job of rate hikes. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS Treasurys rallied Tuesday, taking a breather after a blistering sell-off, as more Federal Reserve officials suggested further rate hikes may not be needed. More than a year and a half of steady rate hikes has brought the fed funds rate to a 22-year high.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, —, Bostic, Philip Jefferson Organizations: Atlanta Fed, Dallas, Service, Federal Reserve, American Bankers Association, National Association for Business Locations: Israel, Dallas

“I will remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind as I assess the future path of policy,” Jefferson said in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics. The remarks by Jefferson and earlier by Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, one of the Fed system's more influential voices on financial markets, caused investors to undercut the likelihood of further Fed rate increases. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," said Logan, who has been among the more hawkish officials in supporting the need for continued rate increases. Since the Fed last raised its policy interest rate a quarter of a percentage point in July, long-term bond yields have risen a full percentage point, a fast rate of change for a massive market. A rise in the so-called “term premium," if it proves persistent, could put an enduring drag on the economy and perhaps give the Fed less reason to raise its own policy rate.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, ” Jefferson, Jefferson, Lorie Logan, FedWatch, Gregory Daco, Logan, policymaker, Chris Varvares, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Nick Zieminski Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, Treasury, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, New York Fed, Fed, P, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jefferson, Israel

☆ Two key Fed officials express support for keeping interest rates high
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Two Federal Reserve policymakers expressed support Friday for keeping interest rates elevated as the battle against too-high inflation continues. In separate speeches, Governor Michelle Bowman and Boston Fed President Susan Collins said there's still the possibility that the Fed will have to raise rates further if economic data doesn't cooperate. The commentary comes two days after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee decided not to raise rates following its two-day meeting. While choosing not to raise rates, officials indicated they still see one more increase coming this year, then potentially two cuts in 2024, assuming moves of 0.25 percentage point at a time. "There are some promising signs that inflation is moderating and the economy rebalancing," Collins said.

Persons: Susan Collins, Michelle Bowman, there's, Bowman's, Bowman, Collins, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, National Association of Business Economics, Federal, Boston Fed, Market Locations: Washington , DC, Vail , Colorado, Maine

Now, however, some firms and experts are walking back those predictions, calling into question the validity of a once-trusted recession indicator known as the yield curve inversion. Nobody rational would argue that the yield curve could have predicted a global pandemic and the short recession that followed it. NABE's most recent survey shows economists are divided on what a yield curve inversion means for the U.S. economy. In normal circumstances, yield curve inversions have been a pretty good indicator of recessions, according to Jebaraj. While the yield curve inverted in 2019, that was not necessarily a predictor of the 2020 recession.

Persons: Mervin, NABE, Goldman Sachs, NABE's Jebaraj, Sam, Jebaraj, — Organizations: Westend61, Getty, National Association for Business Economics, Reserve, Wall, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Center for Business, Economic Research, Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas, Treasury, National Association for Business Locations: U.S

☆ Poland's PGE reverses decision to bring forward carbon neutrality target
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Companies PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA FollowWARSAW, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Polish utility PGE (PGE.WA) said on Monday it was reversing a decision to bring forward its carbon-neutrality target to 2040 from 2050, changing course less than a week after the announcement of a strategy that caused political fallout. PGE is one of a few state-controlled energy firms that is seeking to move away from coal-fired plants in a coordinated overhaul of the country's energy sector. "The Management Board of PGE S.A. repealed the resolution adopting the update of the PGE Group Strategy," PGE said in a statement. "The decision is due to the need to complete the process of establishing the National Energy Security Agency (NABE)." Reporting by Alan Charlish and Marek Strzelecki; Editing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: PGE's, Jacek Sasin, Alan Charlish, Marek Strzelecki, Alexander Smith Organizations: PGE Polska Grupa, WARSAW, PGE, Poland, State, PGE S.A, National Energy Security Agency, Thomson Locations: PGE, Poland, Warsaw

☆ 3 signs the US economy is set to zoom past growth expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

On Thursday, new GDP data will show just how much the US economy grew between April and June. The US has also been experiencing a factory boom, with construction spending on US manufacturing nearly doubling from May 2022 to May 2023. Manufacturing employment recently hit its highest level since 2008, and since Biden took office, around 800,000 manufacturing jobs were added. In the first two quarters of this year, applications to start a business likely to hire employees grew 7% year-over-year. Sectors leading likely employer business applications include accommodation and food services, construction, health care and social assistance, and retail trade.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Joe, Biden, Ellen Zentner, Julia Coronado Organizations: Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Congressional, Investments, Economic, Sectors, National Association for Business Economics, Conference, CPI, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon, —, Philadelphia, frastructure, Mississippi, North Carolina

☆ Top economists do U-turn on recession forecasts as most now see it as unlikely in next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A 71% majority of economists put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 50% or less. It's a turnabout from a March, when a majority saw a recession sometime in 2023. A 71% majority of economists put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 50% or less, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics. That includes a sizable chunk who are especially optimistic, with one-fourth saying a recession has a probability of 25% or less. And in the March NABE survey, 58% said the US was either already in a recession or that it would come sometime in 2023.

Persons: It's, Julia Coronado, Steve Eisman, Paul Krugman Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Business conditions are expected to improve as inflation slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —American businesses are expected to fare better in the coming months, according to a survey of economists and analysts released Monday. A survey from the National Association for Business Economics released Monday showed that businesses have rejoiced in better economic conditions. Meanwhile, a majority of respondents reported that wages at their firms were unchanged — the first time more economists reported no wage gains than rising wages since 2021. The Fed doesn’t necessarily need a recession to do that, but some research suggests the labor market must cool further. The labor market is closely watched by Fed officials since higher labor costs feed into inflation.

Persons: haven’t, ”, Julia Coronado, Austan Goolsbee, cooldown, Brian Moynihan, bode Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan’s, Consumers, National Association for Business, Employers, Chicago Fed, Bank of America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Federation of Independent, Fed Locations: Washington

☆ Economists push back expected Fed rate cut to 2024, NABE poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, May 22 (Reuters) - Economists have pushed back their expectations of when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and have raised their forecasts for inflation and the strength of the job market, a survey released on Monday showed. In February, survey respondents saw the Fed cutting rates in the final three months of this year. Respondents upsized their estimate of inflation in 2023, seeing the consumer price index up by 3.3% from the last quarter of 2022 to the final quarter of 2023, according to the survey. In February, respondents expected inflation would be up 3% over the same period. The jobless rate, currently at 3.4%, is projected to average 3.7% this year, down from 3.9% in the February poll.

☆ Economists: US can weather ongoing crises, but recession remains on the table
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

In February, the majority of economists said a downturn could start in the first half of the year; now, that’s shifted to the third quarter or later. There was, however, greater consensus on inflation, the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking counterattack, banking turmoil and debt ceiling uncertainty. “A majority of panelists believes breaching the debt ceiling will not bring on a global financial crisis unless an impasse persists for several weeks. Most respondents believe de-dollarization is not a threat over the foreseeable future.”More than half (55%) of surveyed economists believe the debt ceiling will be raised, 42% believe the debt ceiling will be suspended, while 3% believe the United States will default on its debts. The economists surveyed expect interest rates to remain elevated through the rest of the year, and nearly half expect that the Fed will start cutting rates in the first quarter of next year.

☆ Premarket stocks: Commercial real estate is in trouble. Why you should be paying attention
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Economists are growing concerned about the $20 trillion commercial real estate (CRE) industry. After decades of thriving growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. Before the Bell spoke with Xander Snyder, senior commercial real estate economist at First American, to find out. Before the Bell: Why should retail investors pay attention to what’s going on in commercial real estate right now? So the health of the market has an impact on the larger economy, even if you’re not interested in commercial real estate for commercial real estate’s sake.

☆ Bank fears will likely lead to even more market volatility in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Market turbulence could reign supreme once again in the week ahead, as investors worry about the potential for more trouble rippling through the banking system. The broader market was initially under pressure Friday as investors became jittery about Deutsche Bank . "The market is saying: 'You, the Fed, do not appreciate the slowdown that is going to hit us,'" Chandler said. "The market is going to do a lot better and it held onto its gains despite all the things that rocked the market. He added that market concern about banks has risen, and there is concern credit tightening will hurt the economy.

☆ NABE economists still expect a recession this year. The question is when
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Nearly 60% of survey respondents said they believe the US had a more than 50% shot of entering a recession in the next 12 months. When such a recession would start was another matter: 28% said first quarter, 33% said second quarter, and 21% said third quarter. Creating some uncertainty among economists, however, is what the Fed might do during that time as well as the potential effect from external factors. NABE economists said they expect unemployment to increase, but the majority doubt it’ll exceed 5%. A mere 2% of respondents said that a “housing market bust” was the greatest downside risk to the US economy in 2023.

☆ Premarket stocks: Why the Fed is increasingly flying blind on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But lately, some economists have begun to worry that the data on which Fed officials rely is becoming increasingly inaccurate. That causes more volatility in the incoming data and hence more volatility in markets, economists say. To what extent are declining response rates to surveys actually impacting the data we use? It is absolutely critical for the Fed and markets that the incoming data is as reliable as possible. Those earnings reached what Buffett called a “record” — $30.8 billion in 2022, topping the $27.5 billion in the prior year.

☆ American small business pessimism on recession, inflation, isn't relenting
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

That's according to the CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey for the first quarter of 2023. The Q1 survey was conducted from Jan. 23-Jan. 30 among over 2,300 small business owners across the country. "Small business owners have a more difficult time gaining benefits of economies of scale," said Holly Wade, executive director of the NFIB Research Center, whose own recent surveying of small business owners finds persistent pessimism. The new CNBC|SurveyMonkey data finds 75% of small business owners saying they are still facing rising costs of supplies and just over half (51%) supply chain disruptions. Politics is a factor in Main Street outlook Politics plays a role in any small business survey, with a demographic that skews conservative.

☆ Premarket stocks: Tech earnings could wreck Wall Street's party
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Big Tech earnings are here, and investors are hoping they don’t wreck the good vibes on Wall Street. Three giant tech earnings reports this week — Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA)and Intel (INTC) — could change that. In the year-ago quarter, earnings were $2.48 per share on $51.73 billion in revenue. Still, Wall Street expects Tesla’s earnings to grow, if not at the explosive pace of the past few years. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict that tech growth will slow to 9% between 2021 and 2024 while the sales growth of the overall S&P 500 reaches 7%.

☆ Businesses see lower odds U.S. in or entering recession, NABE says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] People line up outside a Kentucky Career Center hoping to find assistance with their unemployment claim in Frankfort, Kentucky, U.S. June 18, 2020. Approximately 53% of those polled by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) said they had a more than-even expectation the United States would enter a recession over the next 12 months, while 3% indicated they thought the country was already in one. In the NABE's previous poll released in October, 64% of respondents indicated that the U.S. economy was either already in a recession or had a more-than-even likelihood of entering one in the next 12 months. A total of 60 NABE members who work for private-sector firms or industry trade associations responded to the latest survey, which was conducted from Jan. 4-11. Inflation, based on the Fed's preferred measure, is still nearly three times the central bank's 2% target.

☆ NABE survey: Businesses see lower odds U.S. in or entering a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNABE survey: Businesses see lower odds U.S. in or entering a recessionCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Squawk Box' to break down the findings from an important new survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics on the nation's economic outlook.

☆ More layoffs are on the way, survey of business economists finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —For the first time since the early days of the pandemic, most business economists expect their companies to cut payrolls in the coming months, according to a new survey released Monday. Just 12% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) anticipate employment will increase at their firms over the next three months, down from 22% this fall. The share of economists expecting payrolls will decline at their companies ticked up to 19%, according to the survey, which was conducted January 4 to January 11. NABE said this is the first time since 2020 that more respondents anticipate shrinking, rather than growing, employment at their firms. The survey found that slightly more than half of the business economists who responded peg the risk of a recession over the next year at 50% or higher, with the biggest risks including higher interest rates and costs.

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